Small sample bias in MSM estimation of agent-based models

نویسندگان

  • Jakob Grazzini
  • Matteo Guido Richiardi
  • Lisa Sella
  • Andrea Teglio
  • Simone Alfarano
  • Eva Camacho-Cuena
  • Miguel Gines-Vilar
  • Matteo Richiardi
چکیده

Starting from an agent-based interpretation of the well-known Bass innovation diffusion model, we perform a Montecarlo analysis of the performance of a method of simulated moment (MSM) estimator. We show that nonlinearities of the moments lead to a small bias in the estimates in small populations, although our estimates are consistent and converge to the true values as population size increases. Our approach can be generalized to the estimation of more complex agent-based models.

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تاریخ انتشار 2015